Rethinking Crisis and Risk: 'Early Warning' Through a Pluralism Lens
How do we define ‘risk’ and ‘crisis’, and how can a pluralism lens help to identify early warnings of conflict? On April 1st, 2015, over 100 people joined the Centre to explore the problem of understanding exclusionary trends before they lead to conflict.
Our sixth Pluralism Forum featured Stefan Wolff (Institute for Conflict, Cooperation and Security, University of Birmingham) and Patrick Travers (Office of the UN Special Advisor on Genocide Prevention) in conversation with the Centre’s Secretary General John McNee.
Although conflict prevention has been a priority for many international organizations, much of this effort focuses on fragile states or where conflict is imminent. Patrick Travers and Stefan Wolff both emphasized the need to identify forms of civic exclusion before possible conflict is even on the horizon, since oftentimes warnings in countries at the brink of violence are much too late to be effective. They discussed how a pluralism lens could be used to identify forms of exclusion, and then reverse negative trends before breakdown occurs.